近50年火山喷发和太阳活动对我国气候影响的研究

利用特征向量分析与时序叠加分析和谱分析相结合的方法，分析了近50a来我国地面气温和降水场中火山喷发和太阳活动的气候信号，强烈的火山喷发导致全国大部分地区降温，喷发1a多以后降温最明显，并能持续约半年。除这个主信号以外，青藏高原、东南沿海和东北地区都可能出现较为复杂的温度变化，温度变化与太阳活动之间的联系更多地反映在二者的振荡关系上。在降水场中的火山信号较弱，表现为火山喷发后的秋冬季节南方地区降水偏多。在青藏高原积雪和深层地温的变化中，没有发现火山和太阳活动信号。

Study on the Effects of Volcanic Eruption and Solar Activity on Climate in China in Recent 50 Years

The climatic signals of volcanic eruption and solar activity in China surface temperature and precipitation records in recent 50 years were revealed by using a mixture of principal component analysis (PCA), superposed epoch analysis (SEA) andspectral analysis. Large explosive volcanic eruption resulted in a decrease in surface temperature over almost all parts of China, which hada time lag of about one year and continued for about half year. Besides this mainsignal, a complex pattern for temperature variation was expected over Qinghai|Xizang Plateau, southeastern coastal area and northeast region. While the spectral linkage between temperature variation and solar activity was more obvious, there was a weak volcanic signal in precipitation records, which indicateda positive anomaly in rainfall over South China in the following autumn and winter after the eruption. No significant signal hadbeen found in the records of snow cover and deep soil temperature over Qinghai|Xizang Plateau.