| 极值理论在福建沿海地区地震预测中的研究与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈珊桦,张有明,尤宇星,黄圣棕.极值理论在福建沿海地区地震预测中的研究与应用[J].华北地震科学,2013(3):29-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈珊桦 张有明 尤宇星 黄圣棕 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省地震局泉州基准地震台,福建泉州362000 |
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| 基金项目： | 2012年度震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务（闽震预报[2012]8号）;泉州市科技计划项目（2011Z2） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用陈培善等人对极值理论修改后的极值分布函数模型对1971年1月-2012年9月福建沿海地区的地震资料进行统计分析,单位时间内最小与最大地震的确定分别考虑相关区域内台网的监控能力以及删除余震后的实际情况.根据修正后的极值理论统计计算出该地区地震的复发周期及截至2015年12月可能发生的相应地震的次数与发震概率,并对有关结果进行映震能力分析,为今后福建沿海地区地震趋势分析提供可遵循的理论依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 极值理论 地震复发周期 地震发生概率 地震趋势分析 |
An Application and Study of the Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Areas of Fujian Earthquake Prediction |
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| CHEN Shan-hua,ZHANG You-ming,YOU Yu-xing,HUANG Sheng-zong.An Application and Study of the Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Areas of Fujian Earthquake Prediction[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2013(3):29-34. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Shan-hua ZHANG You-ming YOU Yu-xing HUANG Sheng-zong |
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| Institution: | (Quanzhou Standard Seismic Station, Quanzhou 362000, China) |
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| Abstract: | A statistical study is made on the data of earthquakes in coastal areas of Fujian between 1971.1-- 2012. 9 using the distribution function of extreme values modified by Peishan Chen et al. Then, consider- ing regional seismic network monitoring ability and earthquake catalogue deleted aftershocks, minimum earthquake magnitude and maximum earthquake magnitude in unit time is determined. Based on the modi- fied extreme values theory, the recurrence period in the region was calculated, the theoretical frequencies and the probability of various earthquakes which will occur up to 2015.12 in the region was estimated. The capability reflecting earthquake is analyzed. The result provides the theoretical basis for earthquake tend- ency analysis in coastal areas of Fuiian in future. |
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| Keywords: | extreme value theory recurrence period of earthquakes probability of earthquake occurrence earthquake tendency analysis |
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