| 应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩桂荣,方乾.应用线性化方法作江淮气旋发生的概率预报[J].气象科学,1998,18(4):403-408. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩桂荣 方乾 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象台!南京，210008，江苏省气象台!南京，210008，江苏省气象台!南京，210008 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用几十年气旋资料，应用经验统计及智能数据库技术，精选与气旋发生关系密切的因子，采用非线性回归变换，建立概率回归方程。将T016数值产品代入回归方程进行气旋概率预报。经实际应用并采用Brier评分，结果满意。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率预报 非线性回归 布莱尔评分 T106释用 |
USING LINEAR METHOD TO FORECAST THE HAPPENING PROBABILITY OF JIANGHUAI CYCLONE |
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| Han Guirong,Fang Qian,Zhang Juefang.USING LINEAR METHOD TO FORECAST THE HAPPENING PROBABILITY OF JIANGHUAI CYCLONE[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1998,18(4):403-408. |
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| Authors: | Han Guirong Fang Qian Zhang Juefang |
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| Abstract: | A statistics and intelligent database technique is applied to select the factorswhich should be closely related with cyclone by the use of several ten years data- The proba-' bility equation is set up with a non-linear regression change. The T106 numerical forecastproducts are put into the equation to do the cyclone forecasting. The result of Brier mark issatisfied after operational application. |
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| Keywords: | probability forecast unlinear regression Brier Mark |
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