冬,春季海温异常关键区对长江中下游夏季降水影响的敏感性试验

本文利用9层菱形截断15波的全球大气环流谱模式（L9R15）研究了前期冬季和春季海温异常的关键区对我国长江中下游地区夏季降水的影响，数值试验结果表明，冬季赤道东太平洋和黑潮区海温异常及春季印度洋和黑潮区海温异常使得长江中下游地区的夏季降水明显增多，同时500hPa副热带高压和100hPa南亚高压增强，但从范围和强度上来看，冬季赤道东太平洋和黑潮区海温异常时我国西南至长江中下游地区一带的夏季降水异常比春季印度洋和黑潮区海温异常时更明显，由此证实了观测资料的分析结果。

THE SENSITIVE EXPERIMENTS OF EFFECTS OF SSTA KEY REGIONS IN WINTER AND SPRING ON THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

The effects of the SSTA key regions in winter and spring on the summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have been studled by usingL9R15 general circulation spectral model. The numerical modeling results show that the winter SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific ocean and Kuroshio region and spring SSTA in indian ocean and Kuroshio region may result in increase of summer precipitation in the middleand lower reaches of the Yangtze River significantly. The subtropical high of 500hPa and thesouth Asia high of 100hPa also strengthen. The observational conclusions are verlfled bythese results.