春季北黄海西部冷水团强度的年际差异及其预报

春季冷水团的强度,取决于冷水区的最低水温及面积。本文取该二指标的多年距平绝对值的平均值之半作为标准,划分1960—1980年四、五月北黄海西部冷水团的强度(表1)。 冷水团强度与去年冬季的气候条件有密切相关关系。去冬水温较低,则气温的负逐日累计值越大,北风也越多,今春冷水则强;反之则否。 本文认为,使用依上述因子建立的回归方程预报冷水强度,会得到较好的结果。

THE ANNUAL VARIATION AND ITS FORE-CASTING OF THE INTENSITY OF COLD WATER MASS OF THE WESTERN-NORTH YELLOW SEA IN SPRING

The intensity of Cold Water Mass in spring depends on the lowest water temperature and area of cold water region. In this report, taking the half of absolute values of this two indexes in anomaly of many years as a criterion to divide the intensity of Western-North Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in April and May, 1960-1980(Table 1).There is a close relation between the intensity of cold water mass and the climatic condition in last winter. When the water temperature was lower, the negative accumulated daily value of air temperature was larger, the north wind was too much last winter, the cold water would be strengthened this spring; vice versa.This report suggests that, use the regression equation contructed by above-mentioned factors for the cold water strength forecasting, a better result would be obtained.