Asymmetric vegetation responses to mid-Holocene aridity at the prairie-forest ecotone in south-central Minnesota

The mid-Holocene (ca. 8000-4000 cal yr BP) was a time of marked aridity throughout much of Minnesota, and the changes due to mid-Holocene aridity are seen as an analog for future responses to global warming. In this study, we compare the transition into (ca. 9000-7000 yr ago) and out of (ca. 5000-2500 yr ago) the mid-Holocene (MH) period at Kimble Pond and Sharkey Lake, located along the prairie forest ecotone in south-central Minnesota, using high resolution (∼ 5-36 yr) sampling of pollen, charcoal, sediment magnetic and loss-on-ignition properties. Changes in vegetation were asymmetrical with increasing aridity being marked by a pronounced shift from woodland/forest-dominated landscape to a more open mix of grassland and woodland/savanna. In contrast, at the end of the MH, grassland remained an important component of the landscape despite increasing effective moisture, and high charcoal influxes (median 2.7-4.0 vs. 0.6-1.7 mm² cm^− 2 yr^− 1 at start of MH) suggest the role of fire in limiting woodland expansion. Asymmetric vegetation responses, variation among and within proxies, and the near-absence of fire today suggest caution in using changes associated with mid-Holocene aridity at the prairie forest boundary as an analog for future responses to global warming.