1994年西太平洋副高异常的前期特征分析

本文通过相关普查，分析了影响夏季西太平洋副热带高压的北太平洋海温场和北半球５００ｈＰａ高度场的前期特征，找出了影响１９９４夏季酉太平洋副热带高压异常的强信号及其所在区域．以较高的信度和精度建立了夏季逐月副高强度和脊线位置两特征量的预报方程，进一步发现，中、东部太平洋海温场存在与副高强度高相关的对偶相关区，该区同前一年６月加利福尼亚寒流和北赤道暖流间形成的海温梯度相对应，而初夏副高脊线位置则决定于前一年１０～１２月赤道东太平洋一线的海温分布．

Analysis of the Previous Stage Charcterstics of Abnormality of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in 1994

In this poper the authors have analysed the previous stage characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) field in the northern Pacific and 500 hPa high field over the northern hemisphere by the stutistical method, which fields exert an influence on the western Pacific subtropical high in the summer. Not only were some strong signal areas found out which influenced abnormality of the subtropical high in the summer of 1994,but also the existence of an antithetical correlative area closely correlated to the intensity of the subtropical high was discovered in the SST field of the central and eastern Pacific, which area corresponds to the sea temperature gradient which is caused by the California Current and the north Equatorial Current in the June of the last year and ridge line of the subtropical high is dependent on the distribution of sea temperaturre along the equatorial eastern Pacific from the Oct. to the Dec. of the last year. On the bssis of the analyzed results monthly summer forecast equations for the two charcteristic values, i. e. The positions of the intensity and the ridse line of the subtropical higher are set up with higher confidence level and accuracy.