中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究

已有研究表明, 中国大陆活动地块边界带是我国大陆强震的主体带和集中区, 因此有必要对各边界带开展强震危险性的跟踪分析。本文分别从加卸载响应比时序演化特征、 基于对数正态分布的概率方法和b值变化特征3个方面对各边界带未来强震趋势进行了分析; 并分别根据加卸载响应比时序演化特征、 综合累积概率与条件概率、 b值下降判断了各边界带未来发生强震的危险程度。最后, 根据3种方法的分析结果, 探讨了中国大陆未来5年发生强震的可能区域。

Study of Strong Earthquake Trends on the Active Tectonic Boundaries in Chinese Mainland

Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland are the main bands and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland. It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk on the active tectonic boundaries. In this paper, we carry out the analysis on the trends of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic boundary from three aspects respectively, including the characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series evolution, probability method based on the log-normal distribution function, and b value variations. Strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic boundary is also estimated in terms of the characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series evolution, investigating both cumulative probabilities and conditional probabilities and the decrease of the b value. Finally, according to the results of the three aspects referred earlier, possible areas where strong earthquakes might occur in next five years in Chinese Mainland are discussed.