未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。

CALCULATION OF RELATIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGE OF MID-JIANGSU COAST IN THE FUTURE

Relative sea level change is controlled by global sea-level and various regional factors, such as land sink and atmospheric pressures. Tidal records of the past decades from several tidal gauge stations along Jiangsu coast are analyzed in the paper. The rates of relative sea-level change during the recent decades are calculated. Based on these, contributions of regional factors to the relative sea level changes are calculated according to the rates of global sea-level change and regional relative sea-level change. Based on the assumption that the regional factors remain stable in the coming century, relative sea level change is calculated according to the rate of global sea level change in the future caculation by IPCC and the rate that controlled by regional factors. The result shows that the relative sealevel will rise from 15 to 152 cm in the coming century (from 2000 to 2100), with is much higher than the global sea-level rise on an average (reported by IPCC) during the same period. Contribution to relative sea-level from the atmospheric pressure on the sea surface is discussed at the end of the paper.