碳成本传递原理、影响因素及对中国碳市场的启示——以电力部门为例

以欧盟碳市场的实践以及中国碳市场的发展现状为背景，调研分析了碳成本传递原理，重点以电力行业为例分析碳成本传递率的主要影响因素。结果显示影响电力行业碳成本传递率的主要因素包括碳排放权交易的配额分配方式以及电力市场结构。分配方式对传递率的影响主要包括配额是否免费发放、是否实时更新免费配额的发放额度、关闭的发电设备是否获得免费配额和新进入者是否发放免费配额等因素。电力市场结构对传递率的影响主要体现在市场竞争程度、市场需求与供给条件。最后，基于当前国内碳市场试点的碳配额分配方式，给出了循序渐进地改变碳排放额初始分配的方法、减少一次性发放未来相对长时期的免费配额、选择基于发电量发放免费配额而非装机容量发放免费配额等相关政策建议。

Carbon Cost Pass-Through Principle,Impact Factor Analysis and the Implications for Carbon Market Establishment in China:Power Sector Case

Based on the practice of EU ETS and domestic carbon market development status, the carbon cost pass-through principle are analyzed. Power sector is taken as an instance to emphatically study the effect factors of pass-through rates. Result shows that the pass-through rate (RPT) depends mainly on two factors: the method of allocating CO₂ emission allowances, and the structure of the power market. The method of allocating CO₂ emission allowances includes several factors: auctioning versus perfect free allocation, updating free allocation to incumbents or not, contingent allocation to plant closures or not, and free allocation to new entrants or not. The structure of the power market also includes several factors: the level of market concentration or market competitiveness, the shape of the demand curve, and the shape of the supply (or marginal cost) curve. The influence of the structure of the power market on the RPT is mainly reflected in the degree of market competition, market demand and supply conditions. Finally, based on the current domestic carbon market pilot, the article gives some suggestions: changing the initial allocation of carbon emission allowance step by step, reducing one-time payment of free allowance for long period, and allocating allowance based on electricity production instead of capacity.