西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干研究进展

热带气旋气候变化研究不仅是当前国际热带气旋气候界的热点科学问题,而且也是具有现实意义的社会问题,各国气象学者和科学家们对此进行了广泛的研究。虽然热带气旋活动与气候变化之间的关系及其相应的内在物理机制至今还处在探究之中,但是近20多年来热带气旋气候学的研究还是取得了显著的进展。本文主要针对濒临中国的西北太平洋海域,回顾了热带气旋活动季节内、年际、年代际变化及其全球变暖背景下的变化趋势的气候学研究。此外,文中也对西北太平洋热带气旋气候学的研究进行了展望,并提出了该领域中一些亟待解决的科学问题。

Review on climate change of tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific

Research on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology has become a hot scientific issue due to its serious social-economical influence. Although the relationship between TC activity and climate change, and the associated physical mechanism are not well understood, the great progress on TC climatology has made in recent 20 years. Based on the latest research progress, a review on the relationship between climate change and TC activity over the Northwest Pacific is presented, including the intraseasonal, interannual and decadal low-frequency variability and the observed trends. This paper also provides a better understanding about the relationship between TC activity and global warming. Additionally, some prospects in this field and recommendations for making future progress on the TC climatology over the Northwest Pacific are also proposed.