| COD浓度非线性检验与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 高强,王洪礼,李胜朋,葛根.COD浓度非线性检验与预测[J].海洋通报,2009,28(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 高强 王洪礼 李胜朋 葛根 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学机械工程学院,天津,300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用 BDS、Box-Pierce 和 Ljung-Box 方法对 1995-2005 年渤海化学耗氧量(COD) 浓度历史监测数据的独立性进行了检验,采用代替数据检验 IAAFT、White 和 Terasvirta 人工神经网络弱非线性检验、Hinich 双谱检验以及无 Fourier 变换检验进行了相关性的非线性检验,判断出渤海 COD 不独立且线性相关.综合比较线性 ARMA、局部线性、规则集成、随机森林、随机梯度Boosting、支持向量、人工神经网络、自适应样条 8 种预测方法,结果表明线性 ARMA 模型误差均值和方差最小,证明线性 ARMA模型更适合分析渤海 COD 数据,同时证实了前述各种非线性检验结果的可靠性.
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| 关 键 词： | 化学耗氧量(COD) 独立性检验 非线性检验 预测 |
Nonlinear Testing and Prediction of COD Density |
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| GAO Qiang,WANG Hongli,LI Shengpeng,GE Gen.Nonlinear Testing and Prediction of COD Density[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2009,28(1). |
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| Authors: | GAO Qiang WANG Hongli LI Shengpeng GE Gen |
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| Institution: | School of Mechanical Engineering;Tianjin University;Tianjin 300072;China |
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| Abstract: | Dependence was tested in Bohai COD from 1995 to 2005 by BDS,Box-pierce and Ljung-Box independence test.Surrogate data test IAAFT for nonlinearity,White's and Teravirta's artificial neuron network test for neglected nonlinearity,Hinich's bispectrum test and a test without Fourier transfer were carried out,and no nonlinearity was made out.It was judged that Bohai COD concentration was of non-dependence and linear correlation.The mean errow and standard error of linear ARMA model were the minimum comparing loc... |
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