| 基于Copulas函数的二维干旱变量联合分布 |
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| 引用本文： | 李计,李毅,宋松柏,崔晨风.基于Copulas函数的二维干旱变量联合分布[J].水文,2012(1):43-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李计 李毅 宋松柏 崔晨风 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50879070) |
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| 摘 要： | 通过构建干旱变量的联合分布揭示干旱演变规律,可作为干旱分析的重要手段。基于8种单参数族的Copulas函数进行新疆乌鲁木齐和石河子气象站二维干旱变量的联合分布。经拟合优度评价:Frank Copula对干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和烈度峰值的拟合度最好;Clayton Copula对于干旱烈度和烈度峰值的拟合效果最好。二维变量联合超越概率值随单变量值的减小而增大;单变量的重现期介于二维变量联合重现期与同现重现期之间。表明Copulas函数能够描述二维干旱特征变量的联合分布。
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| 关 键 词： | Copulas函数 二维联合分布 拟合优度 重现期 |
Joint Distribution of Two-dimension Drought Variables Based on Copulas Function |
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| LI Ji,LI Yi,SONG Songbai,CUI Chenfeng.Joint Distribution of Two-dimension Drought Variables Based on Copulas Function[J].Hydrology,2012(1):43-49. |
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| Authors: | LI Ji LI Yi SONG Songbai CUI Chenfeng |
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| Institution: | (College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Joint distribution of drought variables can determine the evolution rules of drought events,which is an important method for drought analysis.Two-dimension joint distribution of drought variables was analyzed based on 8 kinds of single parameter copulas functions for the meteorological stations of Urumqi and Shihezi.The evaluation of goodness degree for fitting show that frank copula function has best fit for drought duration/drought severity and drought/duration and drought peak.Clayton copula function has best fit for drought severity and drought peak.The exceeding probability of two drought variables increase with the decrease of the single variable.The return period of single variable range between two-dimension joint return period and co-occurrence return period.This study show that Copulas function can describe joint distribution of two-dimensional drought variables. |
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| Keywords: | Copulas function two-dimensional joint distribution goodness of fit return period |
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