连续Schaefer产量模型在三种模拟渔业评估中的应用

剩余产量模型具有形式简单和所需数据少的特点，使其在许多渔业资源评估中已经成为非常有吸引力的工具。本文主要分析了连续Shaefer产量模型在三种模拟渔业中的应用效果。蒙特卡罗模拟分析表明：模型对在高产量和低产量之间波动的渔业三的评估效果好于其他两种模拟渔业。这可能由于渔业三经历了过度捕捞和恢复两个阶段，所以其数据中含有更多的信息，而其他两种渔业仅仅经历了其中的一个阶段。当白色噪音小于10％时，估计的产量接近于观测产量，误差百分比小于5％；当白色噪音大于30％时，误差百分比接近40％。

ANALYSIS OF A CONTINUOUS SCHAEFER-FORM PRODUCTION MODEL ON THREE SIMULATED FISHERIES

Surplus-production models, because of their simplicity and relatively undemanding data needs, are attractive tools for many stock assessments. This paper analyzes a continuous Schaefer-form production model using three simulated fisheries data. Monte Carlo simulation analysis showed that the model performance for Fishery 3 was better than for the other two simulated fisheries. This may be because Fishery 3 contains more information as it experienced two periods of overfishing and restoring, while the other two fisheries only experienced one period. The estimated yields were generally close to the observations, when white noise levels were low (e.g. <10%), the percentage biases were mostly less than 5%; when white noise levels were high (e.g. > 30%), the percentage biases could go as high as nearly 40%.