水口水库诱发地震的微震前兆信息与趋势预测

福建水口水库地震是我国当前正在发生的一个大型水库诱发地震实例。针对水库地震序列中普遍含有大量微震的特点,探讨微震活动可能包含的前兆信息。研究发现,“微震相对频度”在水口水库地震趋势预测中具有明显的前兆性质,文中还介绍了“微震相对频度”作为一种前兆指标在该水库地震趋势预测实践中的应用效果,对“微震相对频度”的物理意义以及深入开展“微地震研究”的前景进行了讨论。

PRECURSORY INFORMATION OF MICRO-EARTHQUAKES AND PREDICTION TENDENCY OF THE INDUCED EARTHQUAKES AT THE SHUIKOU RESERVOIR

The reservoir-induced earthquake of Shuikou reservoir, Fujian Province, is anexample of the induced earthquake recently occurred in a large-scale reservoir. Aimedat the characteristics that there are usually a large number of microearthquakes involvedin a reservoir-induced earthquake sequence, this paper discussed the precursory infor-mation, which is probably contained in microearthquake activity. The study revealsthat the" relative frequency of microearthquakes" is of the remarkable precursory proper-ty in the tendency prediction of Shuikou reservoir-induced earthquakes. In addition,the paper also introduced the applied effect of the relative frequency of microearthquakesas a precursory index in the practice of tendency prediction of reservoir-inducedearthquakes as well as discussed the physical sense of the relative frequency ofmicroearthquakes and the prospect of deep-going study of microearthquakes.