季节变化对全球气候变化的响应——以湖北省为例

根据湖北省10个代表站1951(或建站)~2006年逐日平均气温,计算分析了四季初日和长度及其变化趋势,以揭示气候季节对全球气候变暖的响应。结果表明:(1)湖北省平均春、夏、秋、冬四季初日分别为3月22日、5月27日、9月27日、11月27日,四季长度分别为65.7、122.8、60.9、115.6d,且时空差异明显;(2)56a来湖北省平均入春、入夏分别提前2.8、1.6d,入秋、入冬分别推后4.0、6.1d;(3)56a来湖北省平均冬季缩短8.9d,夏季延长6.3d,秋季延长2.0d,春季无变化;荆州夏季延长21.1d,武汉冬季缩短17.0d。

Responses of Changing of Climatic Seasons to Global Warming:A case of Hubei Province in Central China

In the last 100 yr especially in the last 50 yr, the earth is getting warmer in most part of the world and China, which leads climatic belts moving northward and higher, and the change of the phenological period and growing season.The changing of climatic seasons are also observed in some parts of China.The climatic seasons are adopted that means the 5 d-moving averaged temperature ≤10.0℃ as winter, ≥22.0℃ as summer, and 10.0-22.0℃ as spring or autumn.For revealing the responding mode and degree of climatic seasons to global warming systematically, the daily average temperature of 10 representative meteorological stations in Hubei Province during 1951-2006 are used to calculate and analyze the elemental properties and changing trends of beginning dates and lengths of four seasons.The results show that:1) The provincially averaged beginning dates in spring, summer, autumn and winter are respectively Mar.22, May 27, Sept.27, and Nov.27, and the averaged length is 65.7 d, 122.8 d, 60.9 d and 115.6 d, respectively, and their spatial and inter-annual variations are obvious.2) In last 56 yr, the provincially averaged beginning dates of spring and summer were advanced for 2.8 d and 1.6 d, respectively, and those of autumn and winter were delayed for 4.0 d and 6.1 d respectively, and only that of the winter was changing significantly, which means the seasons in the first half of a year were getting earlier, and the seasons in the second half of a year were getting later with more significant change.The extreme examples included 9.7 d advanced for spring in Wuhan in 56 yr, 6.7 d advanced for summer in Macheng in 48yr, 15.0 d delayed for autumn in Jingzhou in 54 yr, 11.4 d delayed for Macheng in 48 yr.3) In last 56 yr, the provincially averaged length of winter was shortened for 8.9 d, those of summer and autumn were prolonged for 6.3 d, 2.0 d, respectively, and that of spring varies little.That means more change in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.The extreme examples included 21.1 d prolonged for summer in Jingzhou in 53 yr, 17.0 d shortened for winter in Wuhan in 56 yr.4)There were larger change of climatic seasons in the eastern and middle parts of Hubei Province due to larger warming effect,while lighter change of climatic seasons in the western mountainous area corresponding to little warming effect.And also larger change in climatic seasons in the urban area of the larger cities such as Wuhan were observed.It is obvious that the climatic seasons show some distinct variations or trends in Hubei Province, that will affect agricultural activity, crop growing, even our daily life such as outgoing, dressing, shopping and selling and so on.Some countermeasures must be taken as soon as possible.