| 强震前中期地震活动的变化及TIP预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄德瑜 陈Yong.强震前中期地震活动的变化及TIP预测研究[J].地震,1995(4):323-327. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄德瑜 陈Yong |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局分析预报中心
中国北京100036(黄德瑜)，国家地震局 中国北京100036(陈颙) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助课题(49134100)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来我国华北西南及邻近地区共１６次强震前的ＴＩＰ，即震发生概率增长时间。结果表明，１４次强震发生在补判定为概率增长时间的ＴＩＰ内。ＴＩＰ警戒约占研究部时空域的３７％，获得了较好的强震中期预测内符效果。表明该方法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。
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| 关 键 词： | 强震 中期预报 M8算法 地震前兆 地震活动性 |
RESEARCH ON M8 ALGORITHM APPLYING TO TIP PREDICTION OF CHINA'S STRONG EARTHQUAKE CASES IN THE PAST DECADES |
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| Huang Deyu.RESEARCH ON M8 ALGORITHM APPLYING TO TIP PREDICTION OF CHINA''''S STRONG EARTHQUAKE CASES IN THE PAST DECADES[J].Earthquake,1995(4):323-327. |
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| Authors: | Huang Deyu |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a positive research of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes occurred in North China and Southwest China and their adjacent area since 1979 by using the improved M8 algorithm. The result shows that 14 of them were determined that they occurred within the period of increasing probability. TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain. That means that we have made good results of the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes. So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | Strong earthquake Medium-term prediction M8 algorithm |
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