大庆市城市脆弱性综合评价与动态演变研究

城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的能力。当这种抗干扰能力低于某一临界阈值时,城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性一般包括资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性四大类型,是上述四种脆弱性的综合体现。大庆市是一座典型的资源型城市,具有明显的脆弱性特征。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法,分别对城市各子系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性动态演变特征进行研究,分析表明：① 1990~2012年,大庆市资源脆弱性呈现增加趋势,生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性、社会脆弱性均呈现降低趋势;② 1990~2012年大庆市城市综合脆弱性经历了“快速下降-波动下降-加速下降”3个变化阶段,目前大庆市处于由中脆弱度向较低脆弱度的过度阶段;③ 伴随石油开采和城市发展,大庆市已经从经济主导型脆弱性转变为资源主导型脆弱性,大庆市已处于城市发展的重要历史时期,亟需加快经济转型和城市转型步伐,转则兴,不转则衰。未来,应持续关注资源型城市,加强资源型城市脆弱性的研究,进一步总结城市脆弱性的发生机理与变化规律,为城市转型和实现可持续发展提供科学依据。

Comprehensive Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of Daqing's Urban Vulnerability

Urban vulnerability refers to the ability of resisting internal and external interference from natural and human factors including resource, ecological environment, economy, social development etc. in the city evolution process. When the resistance to the adverse disturbances is lower than a certain threshold value, city will enter vulnerable state. Urban vulnerability generally includes resource vulnerability, eco-environment vulnerability, economic vulnerability and social vulnerability, and it is the comprehensive embodiment of the four kinds of vulnerability. Daqing is a typical resource-based city with obvious vulnerability characters. The articleused the method of system analysis and composite-index assessment to study the dynamic evolution characteristics of each subsystem’s vulnerability and the urban comprehensive vulnerability. The result showed that: 1) in 1990-2012, the resource vulnerability of Daqing presented an increasing tendency, while the vulnerability of other three subsystems contain eco-environment, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability showed a declining trend. This mainly because Daqing is a resource-based city whose leading industry is oil development and machining; 2) in 1990-2012, the urban comprehensive vulnerability of Daqing experienced three different stage, in sequence of ‘rapid decrease-wavelike decrease-accelerated decrease’. At present, Daqing is in the transition station from mid-vulnerability to lower-vulnerability; 3) The urban vulnerability of Daqing has already changed from economy-leading vulnerability to resource-dominated vulnerability and Daqing is in the important stage of city development. In future, we should pay more attention to the vulnerability of resource-based cities, summarize the mechanism and law of urban vulnerability, and provide scientific basis for the transition and sustainable development of the city.