| 基于最小二乘支持向量机集成的降水预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗芳琼,吴建生,金龙.基于最小二乘支持向量机集成的降水预报模型[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):577-584. |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗芳琼 吴建生 金龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 柳州师范高等专科学校数学与计算机科学系,广西柳州,545004
2. 广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所,广西南宁,530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科技厅青年科学基金(NO.0832092); 广西教育厅面上项目(NO.200807MS098)共同资助; 柳州师范高等专科学校科研基金(No.LSZ2009B005)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 准确的降水天气预报是一个十分重要的研究课题。以中国气象局的T213和日本的细网格数据资料为基础，首先利用粒子群——投影寻踪对众多气象物理因子降维，其次在低维子空间利用四种线性回归方法提取降水系统的线性特征，四种神经网络模型提取降水系统的非线性特征；最后利用最小二乘支持向量机对其集成，对广西6月的逐日降水量进行试验结果表明，该模型预报稳定性好，预报准确率较高，具有较好的业务应用前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 投影寻踪 粒子群算法 线性回归 神经网络 最小二乘支持向量机 |
RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON LEAST SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE REGRESSION ENSEMBLE |
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| LUO Fang-qiong,WU Jian-sheng,JIN Long.RAINFALL FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON LEAST SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE REGRESSION ENSEMBLE[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2011,27(4):577-584. |
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| Authors: | LUO Fang-qiong WU Jian-sheng JIN Long |
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| Institution: | LUO Fang-qiong1,WU Jian-sheng1,JIN Long2 (1.Department of Mathematics and Computer Science,Guangxi Liuzhou Teacher College,Liuzhou 545004,China,2.Guangxi Research Institute of Meteorological Disasters Mitigation,Nanning 530022,China) |
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| Abstract: | Accurate forecasting of rainfall has been one of the most important issues in hydrological research.In this paper,a novel nonlinear regression ensemble rainfall forecasting model is proposed for rainfall forecasting based on the Least Square Support Vector Machine regression.First of all,rainfall factors of the model are obtained by the Projection Pursuit and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm in which the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm optimizes the projection index from high dimensionality to a ... |
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| Keywords: | Projection Pursuit particle swarm optimization linear regression neural network least square support vector machine ensemble |
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