基于贝叶斯时空模型的建设用地扩张格局差异分析——以长三角和中原城市群为例

基于土地利用现状遥感监测数据,采用贝叶斯统计方法对长三角城市群和中原城市群城市建设用地扩张的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究,并探讨两个间差异规律。结果表明:(1)研究期内,两个城市群的建设用地均呈现快速扩张的态势,增长速度均在2000—2005年达到峰值,对应的净增长率分别为36.6%和31.1%。(2)两个城市群城市扩张空间演化过程差异显著,长三角城市群建设用地扩张表现为“点—轴—波式循环”模式,空间异质性较高,出现多个城市扩张热点区域;而中原城市群表现为“点—轴—网”模式,地区间扩张差异较小,温点扩张区域居多。(3)影响两个城市群建设用地扩张的主要因素有经济发展、产业结构、人口规模和居民收入。从影响程度大小的区域对比来看,经济规模、产业结构和居民收入对长三角城市群的影响程度高,人口规模对中原城市群的影响程度高。

Analysis on Difference of Construction Land Expansion Pattern Based on Bayesian Spatio-temporal Model:Taking Yangtze River Delta and Central Plains Urban Agglomeration as Examples

Based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use status,this paper selects the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration and the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration as research areas,and uses Bayesian statistical method to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban construction land expansion and its influencing factors,and discusses the differences between the two regions.Research shows:(1)During the study period,the construction land of the two urban agglomerations showed a rapid expansion trend,both of which reached the peak growth rate from 2000 to 2005,with the corresponding net growth rates of 36.6%and 31.1%respectively.(2)There are significant differences in the spatial evolution process of urban expansion between the two urban agglomerations.The expansion of construction land in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration shows a“point axis wave”pattern with high spatial heterogeneity,and there are many hot spots of urban expansion;while the Central Plains urban agglomeration shows a“point axis network”mode,with little difference in regional expansion,and most of warm point expansion areas.(3)The main factors affecting the expansion of construction land in the two urban agglomerations are economic development,industrial structure,population size and residents’income.From the regional comparison of the impact degree,the economic scale,industrial structure and residents’income have a high impact on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,and the population size has a high impact on the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration.