首都圈人口空间分布优化策略——基于土地资源承载力估测

采用单项指标估测,分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性,提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力,京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和,环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大,冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为：首都圈北部生态屏障建设区,人口限制发展;中部都市功能优化区,人口控制增长;东部人口产业沿海集聚区,人口鼓励增长;南部绿色空间优化区,人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展,应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策,整体提升人口承载力,并加大区域统筹力度,科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。

Optimization Strategy of Population Distribution in Capital Metropolitan Region: Based on Land Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation

Relieving the pressure of megacities’central urban area is a hot issue on regional development and urban economy studies in our country, and it is an important national population development strategy to actively promote the economically developed urbanized area where the resources and environmental carrying capacity is strong to absorb and cluster population. Capital metropolitan region of China in this study, including Beijing and Tianjin municipalities and 7 cities in Hebei Province around Beijing, such as Baoding, Qinhuangdao, Langfang, Cangzhou, Chengde, Zhangjiakou and Tangshan. The resources and environment, population distribution, urban economy development level have obvious differences among cities. Therefore, it is of important theoretical and practical significance to study the population space distribution optimization on the basis of resources and environment carrying capacity of the metropolitan region. On the basis of land resources utilization and its population carrying capacity situation, by estimating the population carrying capacity of construction land and water resources and evaluating the population development restriction according to ecological suitability of construction lands, this article analyzes population carrying capacity of the land resources and its restriction in the capital metropolitan region, and proposes the strategy of population space distribution optimization. Research results indicate that: 1) the population density cascade in the capital metropolitan region is significantly different, core areas in Beijing and Tianjin have high population density; 2) The region with the largest population carrying capacity of land resources in the capital metropolitan region is in the east of Hebei Province around Beijing and Tianjin based on the estimation of constructional land index; 3) By evaluating the water resources condition, the population carrying capacity of water resources is limited. Although the utilization efficient of water resources is improved and water transfer project, population in Beijing and Tianjin basically reached saturation, and there are some potential in Hebei′s cities around Beijing and Tianjin. Based on the analysis of the limitations of the ecological suitability of construction land, population development in Beijing is limited, Tianjin has less potential, the eastern and central regions of Hebei province around Beijing and Tianjin have carrying capacity potential and the northern region should tighten exploit space and expand ecological space. Exploitation and utilization of land resources and population development strategy should be divided into the different areas. The development of population in the north of the capital circle, where is the ecological barrier, should be limited, Population growth in the central urban area should be controlled, population industry is gathering in the eastern coastal area where the growth in population be encouraged, and green space area in the south moderate population growth should be optimized. The promotion of population carrying capacity is limited to water resources and the ecological suitability of construction land in the capital metropolitan region. In order to scientifically promote the population carrying capacity development, effectively ease population pressure in core regions, we should focus on the whole capital metropolitan region, carry out different policies of land use and population development, establish the capital metropolitan region development coordination mechanism, strengthen the metropolitan development plan, enhance infrastructure planning, pay attention to the population growth development areas, carry out inclined development strategy, scientifically and reasonably guide population distribution and gather in the capital metropolitan region to enhance the overall population carrying capacity.