中国城镇房价收入比时空演变的多尺度分析

从全国、省级、市级多个尺度,运用空间自相关和变异系数等方法对中国1999~2012年城镇房价收入比的时空演变特征和分异规律进行了系统分析。结果表明：① 中国城镇房价收入比的时空格局演变特征表现出明显的空间尺度效应,国家尺度呈波动上升趋势,省级尺度先上升后分异,大中城市不断升高,且在2007~2011年省、市级尺度下存在较显著的空间自相关,表明近年来中国房地产市场的空间邻近联动性明显增强;② 房价收入弹性分析表明2003~2012年全国大约70%的大中城市居民的收入涨幅赶不上房价涨幅,部分城市泡沫存在的可能性较大,居民住房支付能力不断下降;③ 全国和东部地区省份间的空间差异2003年之前为缩小趋势,之后逐渐增大,中西部省份间差异较小且基本处于缩小态势,市级房价收入比的差异要明显高于省级尺度的差异且呈上升趋势,空间差异的变化存在尺度效应和分区效应。

Spatio-temporal Evolution on Housing Price to Income Ratio of China by Multiscale Analysis

The real estate industry of China has developed high-speed since 1998, when the welfare housing distribution was cancelled and the housing was commercialized completely. Especially since 2003, China's per capita GDP went over $1 000, the economy transformed into the take-off stage, and the commercial housing price rose into a fast lane. The housing problem is becoming prominent increasingly. For Chinese residents, owning a house has become an important part of Chinese Dream. Housing price to income ratio (PIR) is a commonly used indicator on the housing problem study. First of all, this article summarized and extended the connotation of PIR from the perspective of social, economic, and humanistic care. PIR is the measurer of housing affordability, the indicator of bubbles in the real estate market, and one of the important measurement indexes for measuring subjective well-being of citizens. In view of the lack of space and scale in the current research, the significance of studying PIR from the perspective of geography was put forward. On this basis, using ESDA and coefficient variation, the space-time evolution characteristics and distribution rules of China's urban PIR from 1999-2012 were analyzed from multi-scale (nation, province and city) systematically. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) The space-time evolution characteristics of China's urban PIR presented scale effect clearly. National scale showed fluctuations in the rising, provincial scale changed from rise to variance, and city scale rose like a flying geese. Besides this, PIR existed an obvious spatial autocorrelation under the provincial and city scale from 2007-2011, which indicated the co-movement of adjacent real estate market space enhanced significantly in China in recent years. 2) There were about 70% of the citizens living in big and medium-sized cities, whose revenue growth could not catch up with the housing price growth. Some of the cities were more likely to generate bubbles. With the housing affordability declining, the well-being of citizens also decreased gradually. 3) The spatial difference of PIR between provinces in the east and whole of China reduced before 2003, and increased after that. The difference between provinces in the central and western region shrank consecutively. The difference under city scale was larger than that of provincial scale dramatically. This change indicated the existence of scale effect and zoning effect. In brief, the conclusion revealed the regional difference and scale effect of PIR in China, which eliminated the common misunderstanding and could provide regional policy orientation and theoretical basis.