Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 10081, China;2. Luoyang Meteorological Administration, Henan 471000, China;1. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;2. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Agronomy, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;3. School of Agriculture, Laboratory of Agricultural Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;1. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China;2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China;3. Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, 200241, China;4. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;5. Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, Tiantong National Field Observation Station for Forest Ecosystem, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;1. Key Laboratory of Inland River Basin Ecohydrology, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Québec H9X 3V9, Canada;1. Center for Resources, Environment and Food Security, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;2. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;3. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915, USA |
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| Abstract: | ![]()
Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm–cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize, respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm−2 mm−1, 2.07 kg hm−2 mm−1 and 1.92 kg hm−2 mm−1 during 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Adjusting cropping systems Utilization efficiency of climatic resources Effect Northeast China Future climate scenario |
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