| 试用逐步判别方法预测广西初、终霜趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 涂方旭,董蕙青,李雄.试用逐步判别方法预测广西初、终霜趋势[J].气象研究与应用,2000,21(Z1):45-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 涂方旭 董蕙青 李雄 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广西气候中心,广西,南宁,530022
2. 广西气象台,广西,南宁,530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科技厅科研项目，国家科技攻关项目，，96-908-05-07-2，， |
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| 摘 要： | 分析广西初、终霜日趋势变化,确定了初、终霜日早晚预报序列.用F检验的方法,分析500hPa位势高度场与广西初、终霜早晚的相关区,初选预报因子.再用逐步判别的方法筛选部分因子建立判别函数,预测广西初、终霜趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 初霜 终霜 预测 判别函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5191(2000)增刊-0041-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年2月12日 |
Experimental Forecast Of Intial Frost And Final Frost Tendency In Guangxi By Using Step-by-step Discriminatory Method |
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| TU Fang-xiu,DONG Hui-qing,LI Xiong.Experimental Forecast Of Intial Frost And Final Frost Tendency In Guangxi By Using Step-by-step Discriminatory Method[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2000,21(Z1):45-49. |
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| Authors: | TU Fang-xiu DONG Hui-qing LI Xiong |
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| Abstract: | The initial frost and the final frost forecast series are determined based upon analysis of its trend changes. Forecast factors are primary determined through analyzing coefficient fields of it with height of 500hPa by F check method. The initial frost and final frost forecast is performed on partial factors determined by discriminatory function got up with step-by-step discriminatory method. |
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| Keywords: | the initial frost the final frost forecast discriminatory function |
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