有限元法分析降雨条件下斜坡稳定性——以邻水县马鞍坪滑坡为例

通过对华蓥市马鞍坪滑坡现有变形监测情况表明，斜坡变形位移与降雨的关系十分密切，马鞍坪滑坡的后部强变形区，斜坡位移与50mm以上持续降雨几乎呈对应关系。研究人员采用工程地质条件分析与有限元分析法相结合，对马鞍坪滑坡进行了滑坡体在降雨条件下饱和一非饱和渗流分析与坡体稳定性分析。分析结果表明，降雨量是华蓥山地区斜坡失稳下滑的主要引发因素，不同雨量决定斜坡演化成滑坡的不同阶段，其影响作用也不近相同。计算结果表明，当日降雨量达到150mm左右且累积降雨量超过300mm的情况下，斜坡土体将出现变形，出现滑坡可能性大。该分析结果为今后华蓥山地区地质灾害监测预警示范中的地质灾害单体预警预报，提供了可靠预警参数。

Using finite element method to analyze slope stability in rain condition： taking Maanping landslide for example

According to a geo-hazard monitoring for Maanping landslide in Huaying City, slope deformation has a strong connection to rainfall intensity. Intensive deformations in rear part of Maanping landslide are corresponding with rainfall e- vent above 50 mm. Finite element method and engineering geology analysis are combined to be used for analyzing saturated- unsaturated seepage and stability of Maanping landslide. The analysis result indicates that rainfall is primary factor to lead a landslide to become instability and rainfall can decide evolution phases of a landslide. It has different function in each evolu- tion phase. When rainfall reaches up to 150 mm in one day, a landslide could occur in Maanping region. The research fruit provides a reliable parameter for geo-hazard monitoring and early warning in mountain region of Huaying city.