大凉山断裂带与安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动性分析

通过对比分析，研究了大凉山断裂带和安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动性。认为在历史上安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动无论是频次还是强度都高于大凉山断裂带，这与活断层及古地震研究的结论是一致的。而且，地震活动性分段比较的结果显示，普格附近的空段2和冕宁附近的空段1发生强震的可能性最大，其次为西昌钝角交汇区．另外，需要注意强震前先发生中强震的可能性。

Study on Seismicity of Daliangshan and Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault Zones

The seismicity of Daliangshan and Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zones was made a comparative analysis and study. The results indicate that the seismicity of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone has always been stronger than that of the Daliangshan fault zone in history, which is consistent with the results from the active fault and paleoearthquake studies. Through the comparison of the seismicity between two fault zones by segment, it is referred that it is most possible to occur strong earthquakes on the No.2 gap near Puge and the No.1 gap near Mianning, and the second possible at the obtuse join area near Xichang. In addition, it should be noticed for the moderate earthquakes that would be possible to occur before strong earthquakes.