Model for Estimation of Time and Cost for Tunnel Projects Based on Risk Evaluation

Summary. In the planning and procurement phases of tunnelling projects, numerous decisions have to be made regarding tender price and budget. Many case studies have shown that, in practice, the predicted costs and time schedules are often exceeded. This paper describes a study of the various risk factors in machine tunnelling and their differing impacts on cost and time. It has been concluded from the study that it is important to make a clear distinction between normal cost and time, and the undesirable events that cause exceptional cost and time. Existing decision-aid estimation models consider variation of the risk factors, but do not consider normal cost or time separately from undesirable events. Usually, estimations of project cost and time are made in a deterministic manner, but this does not allow one to consider uncertainty in cost and time variables. However, if the variables are treated probabilistically, the total cost of tunnelling can be expressed as a distribution curve, and a decision can be made on the tunnelling method by comparing the respective cost and time distributions. Based on such decisions, the budget and tender price can be determined separately, both by the client and contractor respectively. To meet the demands placed on decision-making for tender and procurement for currently favoured construction-contracting methods, a new model for estimating tender price and budget has been developed, and is described in this paper. This estimating technique has been applied to a case study of the Grauholz Tunnel. The predictions obtained from the estimation model are shown to be realistic, as the total construction cost and time obtained from the model correspond fairly well to the actual construction cost and time. The separate estimation of normal cost and time and exceptional cost and time contribute to the clarity of the results. The use of the proposed model also shows that the tunnelling method most suitable for the actual geological and hydrogeological conditions can be selected by this method.