广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟

高密度城区是城市的核心区，也是城区扩展的源，对该区域的精确识别以及扩展模拟研究，具有重要的意义与价值。以广州市海珠区1979、1990、2000、2008 年4 期Landsat 影像为数据源，运用非渗透表面端元选取模型(V-I-S) 与归一化混合光谱分析模型(NSMA) 相结合的方法，辅以单窗算法反演地表温度数据(LST)，高精度提取非渗透表面丰度，进而设置合适阈值表征研究区高密度城区范围。在此基础上基于SLEUTH模型设置4 种场景模拟和预测海珠区高密度城区扩展，并用景观指数分析方法对研究区1979-2050 年长达70 年的空间扩展状况进行分析。主要结论为：① SLEUTH模型同样适用于小尺度区域的扩展模拟。② SLEUTH模型模拟中基于自然、人文以及城市扩展内在动力机制等条件参数的设置，促使模拟结果精度更高。③ SLEUTH模型模拟结果表明，自1979 至今，海珠区高密度城区以较快扩展速率扩张，尤以1990-2004 年间变动增长最快；未来的20 年其增长速率减缓，并于2030 年前后趋于稳定。这种扩张格局与变化状况与研究区产业结构、经济政策、土地规划决策等因素密不可分。

The SLEUTH Model Simulation of High Density Urban Sprawl in Haizhu District of Guangzhou City

High-density urban area is the core of urban region and the source of urban sprawl. Its precise identification and expansion simulation are receiving more and more attention. This study used Landsat image data of 1979, 1990, 2000 and 2008 in the Haizhu Distrit of Guangzhou city as basic data sources, in combination with Vegetation-Impervious-Soil Model and Normalized Mixing Spectral Analysis Model. It was also aided with the Land Surface Temperature data inversed by mono-window algorithm as modification to extract highly precise percent impervious surface and to represent the high-density urban area by setting an appropriate threshold for the impervious surface fraction. We ran the SLEUTH Model to simulate and predict the high-density urban sprawl of the study area from 1979 to 2050 in four scenarios, then used the landscape indices method to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns for the 70-year time series of high-density regions. The major conclusions can be drawn as follows. The SLEUTH model is suitable for simulating the sprawl of small-scale region. The excluded layer parameters of the SLEUTH model based on the natural and social dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and other conditions produced more accurate simulation results. The SLEUTH model simulation analysis results show that Haizhu District has been developed at a rapid rate of high-density urban expansion since 1979, particularly in the period from 1990 to 2004 when it witnessed a much faster growth change. In the next 20 years (from 2008-2030), its growth rate would be relatively low. In the 2030s, there would be a stabilized situation in the study area and the sprawl pattern would be closely related to the factors of industrial structure, economic policy and land planning.