中国积雪资源时空演变特征及其旅游开发关键区识别

积雪资源深刻影响着滑雪旅游的发展与布局，刻画中国积雪资源时空特征，识别旅游开发关键区，对中国冰雪旅游高质量发展具有重要意义。本文通过Mann-Kendall突变检验、热点分析、重要-感知实绩分析（IPA）等方法刻画中国1979—2020年积雪资源时空演变特征，构建资源稳定性-旅游开发适宜性指标体系，识别中国滑雪旅游开发关键区。结果表明：(1)中国积雪资源过去40年变化可划为3个阶段，1980—1995年（Ⅰ）积雪资源下降，1995—2010年（Ⅱ）增加，2010—2020年（Ⅲ）下降。在空间上，变化面积呈现Ⅰ-Ⅱ（33.2%）>Ⅱ-Ⅲ（31.1%）>Ⅰ-Ⅲ（29.3%）的特征；(2)中国积雪资源在月尺度上，1—3月（Ⅰ）积雪资源基本维持稳定，3—10月（Ⅱ）显著下降，10—12月（Ⅲ）恢复。在空间上，变化面积呈Ⅰ-Ⅲ（30.3%）>Ⅱ-Ⅲ（28.3%）>Ⅰ-Ⅱ（26.8%）的变化规律；(3)中国境内滑雪旅游开发极关键区面积占比为4.90%、关键区为11.69%、一般区为31.57%、不关键区为25.73%、极不关键区为26.11%，总体来看中国境内85%的区域不...

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of snow cover resource and identification of key areas for tourism development in China

Snow cover is a fundamental resource for the development and layout of ski tourism. Therefore, revealing the spatio-temporal characteristics and identifying the key areas of snow cover resource are great significance for the high-quality development of ski tourism in China. The paper aimed to describe the spatio-temporal characteristics of snow cover and identify key areas for ski tourism development. The spatio-temporal characteristics of snow cover from 1988 to 2018 are described through Mann-Kendall mutation test, hot spot analysis, important-performance analysis (IPA). The key areas are identified for ski tourism development through the matrix of resource stability and tourism suitability. The results suggested that: (1) The changes of snow cover are classified into three periods in the past 40 years: Ⅰ decrease period (1980-1995), Ⅱ increase period (1995-2010), and Ⅲ decrease period (2010-2020). The snow cover area changes 33.2% in period Ⅰ-Ⅱ, 31.1% in period Ⅱ-Ⅲ, and 29.3% in period Ⅰ-Ⅲ. (2) The snow resource remained stable from January to March, while it decreased significantly from March to October, and recovered from October to December. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the snow areas changed 30.3% in the whole year, 28.3% from March to December, and 26.8% from January to March. (3) According to the five-priority level, the key areas for ski tourism development account for 4.9%, 11.69%, 31.57%, 25.73 and 26.11% of the total country, respectively. In general, 85% areas of the total country are not suitable for ski tourism, but their specific use process depends on the level of social development. (4) Due to the stability of snow cover and good tourism development conditions, the most suitable areas for ski tourism in winter (December to February) are clustered in the Changbai Mountains in Liaoning and Jilin provinces. (5) The provincial-level regions with the best snow resources are Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Qinghai. The best conditions for tourism development are Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui and Hubei. (6) According to the results of seasonal analysis of ski tourism areas, China has the basic conditions to develop outdoor ski tourism all year round. Metropolitan areas such as North China, East China and South China have the market conditions to develop ski tourism in summer and autumn. The dynamic data of snow coverage at the national scale in the past 40 years can be widely applied to the development and planning of ski tourism of national and local governments.