基于GNSS及地震活动的沂沭断裂带危险性分析

选取2011～2019年山东地区GNSS基准站及地震滑动矢量等数据，应用块体负位错反演模型，反演沂沭断裂带地区的断层闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率。结果表明，沂沭断裂带诸城以南区域断层闭锁程度较低，无滑动亏损累积；安丘-莒县断裂诸城以北区域断层闭锁程度较高，闭锁深度较深，约为26 km,断层滑动亏损速率约为0.6～0.8 mm/a,为右旋挤压亏损，且该地区小震不活跃，地震危险性值得关注。

Risk Analysis of Yishu Fault Zone Based on GNSS and Seismicity

Based on the data of GNSS base station and seismic slip vector in Shandong area from 2011 to 2019, we use the block negative dislocation inversion model to inverse the fault locking degree and slip loss rate in Yishu fault zone. The results show that the fault locking degree in the south of Zhucheng of the Yishu fault zone is low, and there is no accumulation of slip deficit. The north of Zhucheng of Anqiu-Juxian fault has a higher degree of fault locking, the locking depth is relatively deep, about 26 km, and the fault sliding deficit rate is about 0.6－0.8 mm/a, which is the deficit of right-lateral extrusion. At the same time, microseismicity in this area is not active, so we need to pay attention to its seismic risk.