北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱

分析了北半球两大长波槽即东亚大槽和北美东岸大槽的异常变化对贵州夏旱的指示作用。并得出冬春季节东亚大槽明显偏浅（弱）与北美东岸大槽明显偏深（强）同时发生，是贵州夏旱预测的一个强信号，并以两大长波槽指数为预报因子建立了夏旱短期气候预测模型，经最近３年试报效果较好。

北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱

The relationship between the anamalous change of the two long wave troughs in the northern hemisphere (the east Asian large scale trough and the eastcoast large scale through of the north America) and the summer drought is Guizhou is investigated. The results show that the large sclae trough of the east Asia is obviously shallow(weak) and the large scale trough of the east coast in north America is obviously deep (strong) in winter and spring.It is a strong signal for the prediction of summer drought in Guizhou. The long range forcast model based on more predictor variables that consist of some trough index is established.The results have been effectively applied to the summer drought forcast in Guizhou during the past three years.