GM(1,1)模型初始条件优化及其在GNSS钟差预报中的应用

针对现有改进GM(1,1)模型在导航卫星钟差预报中性能无明显提升的问题，提出通过优化初始条件来提高钟差预报精度的方法。首先构建初始条件未知的GM(1,1)预报模型，然后采用原始序列的最新分量求解初始条件，最后利用该模型对IGS提供的精密钟差数据进行预报实验。结果表明，将初始条件优化后的GM(1,1)模型用于钟差预报切实可行，且预报精度比传统GM(1,1)模型有较大提高。

Optimized Initial Condition of GM(1,1) Model and Its Application inGNSS Clock Offset Prediction

Considering the problem that the performance of the existing improved GM(1,1) model is not significantly improved in satellite clock offset prediction, we present a method to improve prediction accuracy by optimizing the initial conditions. Firstly, we construct the GM(1,1) prediction model with unknown initial conditions, and then use the latest component of the original sequence to solve the initial conditions. Finally, we use the model to predict the precise clock offset data provided by IGS. The results show that the GM(1,1) model with optimized initial conditions is feasible for clock offset prediction, and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved compared with the traditional GM(1,1) model.