台风“梅花”(2212)的主要特点和路径预报难点分析

对2022年第12号台风“梅花”的主要特点、路径预报难点问题和路径预报误差特征进行分析,研究主要结论显示:(1)“梅花”登陆次数多、登陆强度强,是首个4次登陆不同省(市)的台风,也是2022年最强登陆台风,造成华东与东北地区长时间、大范围的风雨影响。(2)台风生成初期的中长期时效路径预报是路径预报难点之一,模式对台风主要影响系统的长时效预报存在明显偏差,针对模式的及时检验和订正对预报调整非常重要。(3)双台风或多涡旋情景下,集合预报发散度大,“梅花”陆上路径预报偏西偏慢,其东侧“南玛都”的强度和位置差异对其路径有明显影响。(4)台风变性过程中的移速误差是路径预报极大误差的来源,关注台风是否处于变性过程可作为调整台风移速预报的参考。未来开展多模式交叉实时检验,基于集合预报研发针对转向变性台风路径预报订正技术可为主观预报提供支撑。

Analysis on main characteristics of Typhoon Muifa (2212) and difficulties in its track forecast

The main characteristics of Typhoon Muifa (2212), the difficulties in the track forecast, and the characteristics of forecast errors are analyzed in this paper. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Typhoon Muifa, characterized by high landfall frequency and strong intensity, is the first typhoon to make landfall 4 times in different provinces (cities), and is the strongest landfalling typhoon in 2022, causing long-lasting and wide-range wind and rainfall in East China and Northeast China. (2) The medium- to long-term track forecast in the early stage of typhoon lifetime is one of the difficulties in track forecast, and there is obvious deviation between the model results and observations in the long-term forecast of the dominated weather systems that impact typhoon, so timely inspection and correction of the model is very important for the forecast adjustment. (3) Under the scenario of binary typhoons or multi-vortex, the dispersion of the ensemble forecast is large, and the track forecast over land for Muifa is slower and westward compared with the observation. The intensity and position differences of Typhoon Nanmadol on the east side have a significant impact on the track of Muifa. (4) The along-track error in the process of extratropical transition is the primary source of track forecast error, especially for the maximum error. Paying attention to whether the typhoon is undergoing extratropical transition or not can be a reference for adjusting the moving speed in the track forecast. In the future, conducting multi-model cross-cutting and real-time inspection and developing a correction technology for the track forecast of recurved extratropical transition typhoons based on ensemble forecast could support for subjective forecast.