全球天然气格局分析和我国的发展战略

天然气因其丰富的储量和清洁低碳的属性受到世界各国普遍重视。在未来30~50年内,天然气的消费量和比重还会继续上升,预计在2040年前后将成为第一大能源。科学分析天然气全球供需格局和研判其未来变化,是科学制定中国天然气发展战略的前提和基础。全球天然气的生产和消费严重分离,形成了基本的天然气供需格局。但新世纪以来,天然气领域全球出现了许多重大而影响深远的变化,美国页岩气革命改变了天然气的供应格局,2013年的俄乌争端将改变了天然气的贸易格局,固有的市场体系必不可免地随之改变。中国天然气需求的增速将大大高于产量的增速,天然气供需缺口将不断扩大。本文提出了我国天然气发展的战略思路,对我国天然气需求的供应保障和产业的可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。

Global Pattern Analysis of Natural Gas and the Development Strategy in China

Owing to its clean and low-carbon properties, the natural gas is gaining universal attention all over the world. In the next 30~50 years, the consumption and proportion of the natural gas will be on the rise continually, and the natural gas is expected to be the first energy globally around 2040. Scientific analysis of its global supply-demand pattern and prediction of its future changes constitute the basis for making the natural gas development strategy in China. The severe separation of natural gas between production and consumption forms the basic supply-demand pattern at present. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the 21st century, the natural gas field has undergone many significant and profound changes, and the shale gas revolution has changed the supply pattern of the natural gas. The Russia-Ukraine dispute that happened in 2013 will alter the trade pattern of the natural gas and will also transform the intrinsic market system inevitably. The increase of demand for natural gas in China will be much faster than that of the output, which will result in the wider supply-demand gap in China. Building a scientific natural gas system based on green development, setting up the overall natural gas guarantee strategic thought which aims to deepen the reform to promote the harmonious development of natural gas industry, ensure the rapid growth of domestic reserves and production and expand the overseas diversified effective supply possess important theoretical and practical significance for the supply guarantee and the sustainable development of the natural gas industry in China.