城市人居环境与经济协调发展不确定性定量评价 ———以长沙市为例

城市人居环境是城市经济持续发展的重要基础和载体,城市经济是人居环境发展的坚实保障和前提.只有实现两者的协调,才是实现城市可持续发展的必由之路.城市人居环境与经济发展的协调性定量评价,是测度两者发展状态的工具,对城市健康发展具有重要的指示功能.城市人居环境与经济系统存在于整个城市生态系统中,由于系统的复杂性,其中存有多种不确定性的因素.因此,考虑不确定性因素影响下,如何建立评价体系,采用什么样的方法进行评价是当前研究的难点之一,也是学术界面临的一项迫切需要解决的问题.本文尝试对城市人居环境与经济协调发展评价中所面临的不确定性问题进行了分析,提出评价体系构建的原则,引入模糊数学方法,提出了一套基于不确定性的综合评价方法与模型,并将该方法应用于长沙市的实证研究中.评价结果与实际情况大体吻合.该方法不仅能反映城市发展整体协调状况,而且能模糊辨别系统间相互作用的模式与演进方式,具有一定的理论价值和可操作性.

Quantitative Evaluation of the Uncer tainties in the Coordinated Development of Urban Human Settlement Environment and Economy: Taking Changsha City as an Example

The human settlement environment problem has become a new focus on urban studies at home and abroad. Sustainable development of urban human settlement is the ultimate target of modern city construction and development. The coordinated development of human settlement and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. It is necessary to review its development and evaluate its coordinating degree. Urban human settlements and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. More and more attentions have been paid to the researches and the applications of the research result to the human settlement, eco-city and urban sustainable development. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This paper analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties were put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation was established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presented a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of Hunan Province showed that the assessment results could reflect not only the overall coordinating degree of the city, but also the model of interactive mechanism between urban economic systems and human settlement.