1960-2012年江苏省气候变化特征

运用统计学方法, 引入气候趋势系数, 分析江苏地区在全球变暖的气候背景下, 气温、降水变化与时间序列的相关性, 得到从1960-2012年江苏省年平均气温、年平均降水量的气候倾向趋势. 研究表明, 该时间段内, 江苏地区有明显增暖趋势; 年平均降水量也与年代呈正相关, 但是两者系数的地区分布却存在不同. 以长江为界区分, 江南较江北更加暖湿, 且江南经济发达地区此现象更为明显. 深层探究江苏地区升温的原因是最低温度的升高, 而江南比江北温度升高的原因则是江南最高气温的升高. 通过四季对比研究得出, 该地区春季升温最为明显, 其中以最低温度的升高最为显著. 春季及秋季降水都呈现减少趋势, 江南地区秋季降水减少最明显, 夏秋季降水增加, 其中江南地区夏季降水增加最显著. 对于气温、降水的EOF分析也进一步验证了该地区增温增湿的总体趋势. 进一步讨论得出, 江苏地区江南江北气候差异的主要原因在于城市化程度的不同, 随着江南江北经济差距的缩小, 此差距预计将减少.

Climate change characteristics in Jiangsu Province,1960-2012

This paper uses statistical methods and introduces a climate trend coefficient to calculate the correlation between temperature and precipitation changes and climate tendency trend with time series from 1960 to 2012 in Jiangsu Province.It was pointed out that during this time period there was a significant warming tendency in Jiangsu Province.The average annual precipitation has increased with time.The Yangtze River is a boundary, south of which is more warm and humid,especially in economy developing regions.It was pointed out that with the background of warming climate of the scale of decades,precipitation of Jiangnan region is more than Jiangbei ones.It is found that the climate warming in the decade scale is due to increase in minimum temperature;more climate warm in south is due to more increase in maximum temperature.By comparing the data of Jiangnan and Jiangbei in four seasons it can be concluded that,spring warming is the most obvious where the lowest tempera-ture increased the most significant.Spring and autumn precipitations are decreasing,especially the autumn pre-cipitation in the south.Precipitation in summer had increased,and especially summer precipitation in the south increases more remarkably.The climate difference between the south and the north mainly causes by the different level of urbanization.With the economic gap narrowing,the climate difference will be reduced.