贵州省地质灾害气象预警系统

从降水（特别是暴雨）是地质灾害的主要自然诱因这一基本事实出发，通过对地质灾害和对应气象资料的分析，探讨地质灾害的发生与气象条件之间的关系，提出了一套基于降雨量指标的地质灾害气象预警方法。作者综合考虑前期累积雨量、降雨类型和实时雨量等关键指标，建立了一定地质环境条件下灾害的气象预警模型。在此基础上，应用先进的软件技术开发研制了贵州省地质灾害气象预警系统，并于2003午汛期投入业务试运行，开展地质灾害气象预警眼务。该系统实时运行在气象业务网络环境中，高效稳定、功能全面．自动进行全省地质灾害气象条件的动态监测和模型计算，利用精细化乡镇雨量观测网和地质灾害隐患点资料，可实现对全省各地到乡镇一级的地质灾害气象条件预警，每日制作发布全省地质灾害气象条件预警报告，提供生动直观的预警图、表及相应的地质灾害隐患点信息：该系统经过在实践应用中不断改进完善，形成了以应用全省精细化乡镇雨量观测资料和针对地质灾害隐患分布的特色。该系统投入业务运行以来建立了汛期业务值班制度，向省委首政府、国土民政等有关部门进行有效的地质灾害气象预警服务，对系统运行情况进行地质灾害实例检验取得了较好的预警效果，服务工作取得了明显的社会效益。由于该系统的开发主要是从气象条件的角度出发，虽考虑了地质灾害隐患的分布情况，但对导致地质灾害发生的地喷环境条件的分析应用还显不够。最后，作者也指出了需要进一步改进的方向。

The meteorologic early-warning system of geological hazards in Guizhou Province

According to the fact that rainfalls especially rainstorm are the primary natural inducements of geological hazards, by analysis on the historical hazards and corresponding meteorologic data, the authors of this paper have been engaged in research of the relationship between geological hazards and meteorologic conditions, and devised a method based on the rainfall indexes to early-warn the geological hazards. In this approach, the key meteorologic indexes such as previous accumulated rainfalls, types of precipitation and updated rainfalls were synthetically applied, and then a calculation model for meteorologic warning under certain geological conditions was presented. Based on the research work, applying with advanced software techniques such as debase, graphics and network techniques, the Guizhou geological hazards meteorologic early-warning system was successfully set up, and was put into test during the flood season in 2002. The system worked efficiently and stably under the meteorologic operation network environment. By automatically monitoring the meteorologic conditions that probably arose geological hazards and doing the model calculation, making use of the fine rainfall observed data at towns distinguishing level, the system was able to output the warning grades results of every town in the whole provincial area. The meteorologic early-warning operation and service have been implemented since the system was put into practice in 2002 and achieved conspicuous social effects. Meanwhile, the system has been constantly improved with the practice process, and it was proved to be effective when tesed by actually occured geological disaster cases. As this study is mainly made from the view of meteorologic inducing conditions of geological disasters, and because of lacking detailed geological data, although the geological hazardous spots information has been taken into consideration, it seems to be inadequate in this paper for analysis and application of geological environment conditions, which is essential to the occurrence of geological disasters. That is what need to do for the further improvement about this work, and the author also pointed out in the end.