Analysis of the Decadal and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon as Simulated by 20 Coupled Models in
IPCC AR4 |
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Institution: | Nan-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Nan-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy
of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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Abstract: | Using the output data of 20 coupled climate models used in IPCC AR4 and observational data from
NCEP, the capability of the models to simulate the boreal winter climatology of the East Asian sea level
pressure, 850-hPa wind, and surface air temperature; the decadal variations of the East Asian winter mon-
soon (EAWM) intensity and EAWM-related circulation, and the interdecadal variations of EAWM-related
circulation are systematically evaluated. The results indicate that 16 models can weakly simulate the declin-
ing trend of the EAWM in the 1980s. More than half of the models produce relatively reasonable decadal
variations of the EAWM-related circulation and the interdecadal di?erences of EAWM-related circulation
between the boreal winters of 1960-1985 and 1986-1998, including the weakened Siberian high, Aleutian low,
and East Asian trough, the enhanced Arctic oscillation and North Pacific oscillation, and a deepened polar
vortex. It is found that the performance of the multi-selected-model ensemble in reproducing the spatial dis-
tribution of the variations is encouraging, although the variational amplitudes are generally smaller than the
observations. In addition, it is found that BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3.1_T63, CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3.0,
GISS-ER, INM_CM3.0, and MRI_CGCM2.3.2 perform well in every aspect |
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Keywords: | IPCC AR4 East Asian winter monsoon interdecadal variations simulation analysis |
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