Can the Uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation Cause a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for ENSO Events? |
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作者姓名: | PENG Yuehu DUAN Wansuo XIANG Jie |
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基金项目: | Sponsored by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-QN203), National BasicResearch and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB950400 and 2012CB955202), and National Natural Science Foundationof China (41176013) |
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摘 要: | With the Zebiak-Cane model and a parameterized stochastic representation of intraseasonal forcing,
the impact of the uncertainties of Madden–Jullian Oscillation (MJO) on the “Spring Predictability Barrier
(SPB)” for El Ni?no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied. The parameterized form of MJO
forcing is added physically to the Zebiak-Cane model to obtain the so-called Zebiak-Cane-MJO model and
then the effects of initial error, stochastic model error, and their joint error mode on the SPB associated
with El Ni?no prediction are estimated. The results show that the model errors caused by stochastic MJO
forcing could hardly lead to a significant SPB while initial errors can do; furthermore, the joint error mode of
initial error and model error associated with the stochastic MJO forcing can also lead to a significant SPB.
These demonstrate that the initial error is probably the main error source of the SPB, which may provide
a theoretical foundation of data assimilation for ENSO forecasts.
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收稿时间: | 2011/10/14 0:00:00 |
修稿时间: | 8/2/2012 12:00:00 AM |
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