近400a 来南方涛动与我国东部旱涝的关系

采用1601～1979年南方涛动指数(SOI)和我国黄河、长江流域各分区旱涝等级资料,计算了各季节的SOI与旱涝等级之间的遥相关及其振荡特性。结果表明,SOI与黄河流域旱涝的遥相关较之与长江流域更为显著,且两者呈反位相。谱分析还揭示了我国黄河、长江流域的旱涝变化具有明显的准3.5a振荡周期,这与各季节的SOI振荡有密切联系。此外,南方涛动变化多超前黄河和长江中游区域性旱涝变化la左右,尤以冬季更为显著。

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND DRYNESS/WETNESS IN THE EASTERN CHINA DURING THE LAST 400 YEARS

The teleconnection between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of dryness/wetness over the Yellow River Valley and the Yangtse River Valley is analyzed in this paper, of which the former is more obvious than the later, and the opposite teleconnection phases were frequently found.By the multi-spectral analyses a common "quasi-3.5 a pulse" could be pointed out. It is showed that SOI has represented one year lead before the variation of the dryness/wetness over the middle reaches of the two valleys. Besides, the high coherence in winter seems more significant.