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Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results |
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| Authors: | Jordan Van Aalsburg John B. Rundle Lisa B. Grant Paul B. Rundle Gleb Yakovlev Donald L. Turcotte Andrea Donnellan Kristy F. Tiampo Jose Fernandez |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, USA 2. Computational Science and Engineering Center, University of California, Davis, USA 3. Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697-3957, USA 4. Geology Department, University of California, Davis, USA 5. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA 6. Department of Earth Science, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada 7. Instituto de Astronomía y Geodesia (CSIC-UCM), Facultad CC Matemáticas, Ciudad Universitaria, Plaza de Ciencias, 3, 28040, Madrid, Spain |
| Abstract: | In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California. |
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