中国各省区经济增长溢出分析

本文基于新增长理论,考虑空间相互作用的衰减性和溢出与GDP缺口的关系,改进了Conley、Ligon(2003)建立的区域溢出统计分析模型。基于这个模型,计算分析了中国各省区的GDP溢出。分析表明:中国大部分省区的增长溢出是正的,上海对外的增长溢出最大。在中国中部地区,湖北省具有重要的溢出作用。中国西部地区除云南、新疆外,经济溢出基本上是负的。因此推广它们的经验,促进西部经济与东部一体化是重要的发展战略。分析还建议,将给予新疆的某些政策也给予东北地区,可能是振兴东北老工业基地的有效措施。

An analysis to growth spillover cross regions in China

Nowadays, in an open economic system, due to the increasing integration process in capital, financial and product markets, economic interaction across regions is becoming more and more important. The economic growth of one region is not just decided by its endogenous factors as before, but increasingly affected by its surrounding regions. Economists call this influence as "spillover". It is the mutual spillover of regions that brings the economic development of whole China. So, to know the spillover will obviously do great help to understand the economic developing question of China and to make effective regional economic policy. In fact, many scholars have conducted researches on this topic. For example, Mckibbin established Mundell-Fleming model between two countries; Douver set up GDP-spillovers models on multi-countries; and Conley advanced a complete framework to analyse spillovers based on all these ideas. In this paper, according to the new growth theory and the spatial interactions, we calculate the cross-province spillovers in China with the ameliorated statistical analysis model of the regional spillovers presented by Conley and Ligon(2003). The results indicate that: Most of the cross-province spillovers in China are positive, and those in the western part of China are negative except Yunnan and Xinjiang. Shanghai has the highest level of spillovers, so we call Shanghai as the economic center of China. Hubei province is key in regional spillover, hence developing Hubei economy can promote economic development in central and western China. As a result, we suggest that it is an important stratagem to promote the integrated development of Western and Eastern economy. Further we also think that an effective measure to revitalize Northeast China's economy is to offer some preferential policies which were given to Xinjiang now to Northeast China.