The influence of the Arctic Oscillation on winter temperatures in Iran |
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Authors: | A R Ghasemi D Khalili |
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Institution: | (1) Climate Research Center, Water Department, Agricultural Faculty, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran;(2) Water Department, Agricultural Faculty, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran |
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Abstract: | Summary The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the winter surface air temperature (SAT) over Iran is demonstrated. Winter SAT
data for 50 years (1951–2000) are analyzed for the negative and the positive AO phases. Using the Median Sequential Correlation
Analysis (MSCA) technique it is shown that the winter SAT is negatively correlated to the winter AO index for most parts of
Iran. The winter AO index accounts for about 14% to 46% of the winter SAT variance. The positive (negative) SAT anomaly is
found to be associated with the onset of the negative (positive) phase. The overall probability of below long-term mean temperature
during the positive and the negative phases are estimated to be around 70% and 25%, respectively. For the negative phase,
westerly winds that originate from the warm Atlantic regions increase over Iran and consequently positive temperature anomalies
are found across the country. The positive AO phase is accompanied by northerly winds that allow continental polar and arctic
air masses to move into Iran, producing below normal temperatures. The summer AO is found to explain about 25–32% of the winter
SAT variance in Iran. The reason for this is explained by the significant correlation (+0.38) between the summer and the following
winter AO indices. These results indicate that the summer climate is linked to changes in atmospheric circulation which persist
through to the following autumn and winter. |
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