冰湖溃决灾害风险研究进展及其展望

系统回顾了国内外冰湖溃决灾害风险研究现状,结果显示,以往冰湖溃决灾害风险评估研究过多集中于冰湖溃决致灾诱因、特征,溃决危险性评价和溃决概率预测以及溃决洪峰流量及其演进模拟研究等自然风险方面,而承灾区经济社会系统脆弱性、暴露性和适应性风险研究却较为缺乏。因此,开展冰湖溃决灾害综合风险研究,不仅对冰湖溃决危险性评价意义重大,而且对于下游承灾区防灾减灾和预警体系建立也具有重要的理论参考价值。

Progress and prospect in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts

Glacier Lake Outburst Floods(GLOF) are natural hazards to the socioeconomic system in hazard regions.However,their predictions still remain worldwide challenge,and thus have attracted much attention in the scientific community as well as society at large.As a result,much progress has been made in risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts.This paper provides an overview of the subject both nationally and internationally.The reviews show that the previous studies focused mainly on the triggering mechanisms and characteristics of glacier lake outbursts,the risk assessment and probabilistic estimation of glacier lake outbursts,and the prediction of maximum GLOF discharge,as well as the GLOF simulation.However,only a few studies have been made on the risk assessment of vulnerability,exposure and adaptation for the socioeconomic system in hazard regions.Therefore,there is a need to enhancing the comprehensive risk assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts,towards a better understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of GLOF risks.The comprehensive risk assessment can provide an important theoretical reference to hazard preventions and mitigations,as well as the establishment of early warning system in hazard regions.