| 气候变化和人类活动对伊塞克湖水位变化的影响及其演化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 王国亚,沈永平,王宁练,吴青柏.气候变化和人类活动对伊塞克湖水位变化的影响及其演化趋势[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王国亚 沈永平 王宁练 吴青柏 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000;中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000;中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951404;2010CB951402); 中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室2010年开放基金项目(SKLCS2010-04); 国家自然科学基金项目(40771047); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411507)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合气象、水文、冰川变化和人类活动序列资料,应用水量平衡方法分析了气候变化和人类活动对吉尔吉斯坦伊塞克湖1927—2008年水位变化的影响.结果表明:降水量和入湖径流量是湖泊水位变化的决定因素.在水量平衡各要素中,降水量和入湖径流量与湖泊水位变化的正相关关系最为密切,而灌溉耗水对目前湖泊水位的变化的影响仅处于次要地位.由于气候变化,流域高山区气温上升显著,湖面降水量和入湖径流量增加明显,导致湖面于1998年停止下降,开始回升,到2008年底已经上升了0.59 m.按照所有SRES情景预估的未来升温情况,伊塞克湖水位还将会因为雨雪比例的增大及冰川融水的大量增加而上升.因此,伊塞克湖水位现在已经处于自然波动恢复状态中,不需要从其他流域向伊塞克湖调水来恢复湖水位,但要注意灌溉回归水可能会对湖水造成一定的污染.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水位变化 演化趋势 伊塞克湖 |
The Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Lake Level of the Issyk-Kul during the Past 100 Years |
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| WANG Guo-ya,SHEN Yong-ping,WANG Ning-lian,WU Qing-bai.The Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Lake Level of the Issyk-Kul during the Past 100 Years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2010,32(6). |
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| Authors: | WANG Guo-ya SHEN Yong-ping WANG Ning-lian WU Qing-bai |
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| Institution: | WANG Guo-ya1,SHEN Yong-ping2,WANG Ning-lian3,WU Qing-bai1(1.State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,Cold , Arid Regions Environmental , Engineering Research Institute,ChineseAcademy of Sciences,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China,2.Cold , Arid Regions Environmental , Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,3.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Cold , AridRegions Environmental , Engineering Research Institute,Lanzho... |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of meteorology,hydrology,glacier change and human activities,the reasons of fluctuation in lake level in the Issyk-Kul,Kyrgyzstan,during the past 100 years were analyzed by means of water balance.It is found that precipitation and runoff are the determinants of the lake level change.Among the elements in water balance,precipitation and runoff are the most correlative with the change in lake level,with the correlation coefficient of 0.76 and 0.62,respectively.The irrigation water is the sec... |
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| Keywords: | climate change water level evolutionary trend Issyk-Kul |
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