MODE方法在西南区域模式降水预报检验中的应用

为了弥补传统检验方法的缺陷，本文基于对象目标的空间检验方法MODE，对四川2019年6月22日的强降水过程进行检验，分析西南区域模式在短时强降水的预报效果。通过对该方法各参数的确定，可以发现:(1)MODE检验方法在确定卷积半径R和降水阈值时应灵活地进行选取；(2)模式较好地把握了此次降水过程的发展消亡过程，尤其是对盆地东北部的降水预报效果很好，对降水目标物的形状、走向、移动方向以及落区有比较好的相关性；但对于降水发展初期，模式预报效果不理想，存在明显的空报；(3)对于强度预报，降水发展强盛期预报场对高原目标物强度预报在降水大值区存在一定高估，对盆地目标物强度预报基本接近于实况，但在降水减弱时对盆地目标物强度预报也存在明显高估。 

The Evaluation and Analysis of High Rain in SWC-WARMS Based on MODE Method

In order to compensate the disadvantages of traditional verification methods,the heavy precipitation process in Sichuan on June 22,2019 was tested with MODE (Method for Object Based Diagnostic Evaluation) of object matching technology. Through the determination of the parameters of the method,it can be found that:(1)The determination of MODE convolution radius R and precipitation threshold value T,should be selected by considering MODE resolution and weather event scale flexibly.(2)In view of this process,SWC-warms is well grasped to the development and extinction of precipitation,especially for the northeast of the basin that the target shape,trend,movement direction and fall area has a good correlation; However,it has obvious false reports in the early stage of precipitation development.(3)For intensity prediction, the plateau target intensity prediction field has certain overestimation in the area of large precipitation value,and the basin target intensity prediction is basically close to the real situation during the period of strong precipitation development,but the basin target intensity prediction also has obvious overestimation when the precipitation weakens.