青岛年降水量和水资源量变化特征研究

采用线性趋势分析、M-K检验、滑动T检验法，对青岛市1956—2016年降水量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量和水资源总量进行变化趋势及突变分析。结果表明：（1）4个指标总体上都呈减少趋势。（2）水资源量的变化趋势受到降水量的影响，地下水资源量与降水量的相关系数最小。（3）M-K检验显示，1967年以后降水量与水资源量均呈减少趋势；降水量于1986—2002年达到显著性水平；地表水资源量与水资源总量均在20世纪八九十年代达到显著性水平；地下水资源量于1983年达到置信度临界值。（4）滑动T检验显示，步长为2时，降水量有1个突变点，为1992年；地表水资源量、水资源总量各有2个突变点，均为1968年和1971年。

Study on Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Water Resources in Qingdao

The variation characteristics of the annual precipitation,surface water resources,groundwater resources and total water resources from 1956 to 2016 were analyzed in this study.Linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test and Moving T-test were used to analyze the changing trend and mutation.The results indicate that,(1)the 4 indicators all decrease significantly.(2)The changing trend of water resources is significantly affected by precipitation.The correlation coefficient between groundwater resources and precipitation is the smallest.(3)Mann-Kendall test shows that,since 1967,both precipitation and water resources have decreased.The precipitation reached a significant level from 1986 to 2002.Both the surface water resources and the total water resources reached significant levels in the 1980s and 1990s.The groundwater resources have reached the significant level since 1983.(4)Moving T-test results show that,when the step is 2,there was a mutation point of precipitation in 1992.Besides,there were two mutation points for both surface water resources and total water resources in 1968 and 1971.