Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing,China |
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| Authors: | Jun Xia Sidong Zeng Hong Du Chesheng Zhan |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, Chinazsdwhu@gmail.com;4. College of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;5. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | AbstractQuantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water–energy balance equations with the Penman-Monteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5–12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4–89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.Y. Xu |
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| Keywords: | climate change human activities runoff Yongding River basin China |
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