| 基于CMIP5的东亚地区降雪量变化特征分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 柳媛普,李锁锁,吕世华,高艳红,奥银焕. 基于CMIP5的东亚地区降雪量变化特征分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2014, 36(6): 1345-1352. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0161 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 柳媛普 李锁锁 吕世华 高艳红 奥银焕 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局 兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局 干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;2. 中国科学院 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41205076);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB956004;2010CB950500);中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养计划博士项目(李锁锁);中国科学院“百人计划”项目(高艳红);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201409)资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用JMA的JRA-55降雪量及CMIP5的6个模式模拟的降雪量资料, 分析了东亚地区降雪量年变化特征及年际变化特征. 结果表明: 东亚地区降雪量在1958-2004年期间具有明显的年际变化特征及区域分布特征; 降雪主要集中在11月至翌年的4月, 这6个月中降雪量占年总降雪量的82%; 年际变化特征呈现出一种波动变化略有增加的趋势, 但是增加的幅度有所不同. 从区域分布特征来看, 东亚地区降雪主要分布在东北亚、青藏高原及新疆等3个区域. CMIP5的6个模式对东亚区域及其子区域东北亚、青藏高原、新疆1850-2004年降雪量年际变化特征的模拟差异较大. 多模式集合预报的结果表现为, 在过去155 a(1850-2004年)东亚区域降雪量呈现明显减小趋势, 东北亚和青藏高原降雪量为波动略有减小趋势, 新疆降雪量为明显增加趋势.
|
| 关 键 词： | 东亚 降雪量 年变化与年际变化特征 CMIP5 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-06-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-09-18 |
An analysis of the changing characteristics of snowfall in the East Asia based on CMIP5 |
| |
| LIU Yuanpu,LI Suosuo,L,#,Shihua,GAO Yanhong,AO Yinhuan. An analysis of the changing characteristics of snowfall in the East Asia based on CMIP5[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2014, 36(6): 1345-1352. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0161 |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Yuanpu LI Suosuo L&# Shihua GAO Yanhong AO Yinhuan |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction, Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China;2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the annual and monthly variations of snowfall in East Asia are analyzed by using snowfalls simulated with CMIP5 model and JRA-55 annual solid precipitation time sequence. It is found that there were obvious annual variation and regional distribution characteristics during the period of 1958-2004. The snowfall concentrated in the period from November to next April mainly, accounting for 82% of the annual snowfall; the annual variation showed a fluctuant increasing tendency, with different increment; spatially, snowfall concentrated in three regions: Northeast Asia, Tibetan Plateau and Xinjiang. The snowfalls simulated by six CMIP5 models had some spatial differences in the East Asia and the three sub-regions during 1850-2004. Temporally, the simulated snowfall presented an evident decreasing tendency in East Asia during the period from 1850 to 2004, with a slight decreasing tendency or an undulation in Northeast Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and an evident increasing tendency in Xinjiang. |
| |
| Keywords: | East Asia snowfall annual and monthly variation characteristics CMIP5 |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《冰川冻土》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《冰川冻土》下载全文 |
|
