典型区域土地沙漠化综合管理系统动力学模型分析

土地沙漠化过程是一个由自然和社会因素共同驱动的复杂过程,因此,沙漠化防治策略的制订必须综合考虑沙漠化区域的自然条件和经济社会发展状况。以科尔沁沙地为典型研究区,利用系统动力学的原理和方法,初步构建了这一地区土地沙漠化综合管理的系统动力学模型,探讨了该模型的主要子系统以及各子系统之间的相互作用关系,分析和绘制了人口、种植业、畜牧业、水资源和土地沙漠化5个子系统的系统动力学流图,阐明了各子系统内部不同变量之间的反馈关系,为进一步通过计算机模拟方法确定该区域土地沙漠化综合管理的优化策略和模式奠定了基础。

An System Dynamics Model for Comprehensive Management of Desertified Lands in Horqin Sandy Land of Inner Mongolia

Land desertification is a complex process driven by a variety of natural and social factors that interact with each other. Therefore,it is needed to consider both natural and socio-economic factors in developing a comprehensive management strategy for desertified lands. The Horqin Sandy Land (one of the most desertification-affected areas in northern China) was used as a case study and a system dynamics model for comprehensive management of desertified lands was developed. The developed model consisted of several subsystems such as population,farming,livestock husbandry,water resources,and land desertification. In this paper,the flow charts of the individual subsystems were built and the interrelationships between these subsystems were analyzed in details. The results of this study are helpful for formulating optimal strategies for management of the desertified lands in northern China.